CLOAK AND CABINET

Finnish President Alexander Stubb wrote an interesting book called The Triangle of Power . It refers to the concentration of power among superpowers and how these powers seek to rule their respective parts of the world. Before WWII, we lived in such a world. After the destruction and horror of the greatest conflict in history, power became more dispersed. Although it remained concentrated among the superpowers, smaller nations had more freedom and choice than ever before. Recently, President Stubb suggested that he should have called his book The Rectangle of Power instead. What has changed? In this blog, I want to explore the idea that the world's power is once again becoming concentrated among a few superpowers. How does this affect smaller nations? Do we live in a decaying world? FROM TRIANGLE TO RECTANGLE, WHAT CHANGED? In the book, Stubb describes a world shaped by three centres of power. These are traditional models that most of us are familiar with. The United States leads ...

As the war in Ukraine rages on, Europe faces a difficult question: how should it deal with Russia? Recent reports of direct communication with Putin have divided opinion, with some seeing diplomacy as necessary and others questioning the value of engaging a leader they believe is not serious about peace. This week, we examine the grey zone between peace and war, where sabotage, cyberattacks and threats to critical infrastructure challenge Europe’s response. These actions may not justify military retaliation, but they are too serious to ignore. How can Europe respond decisively without risking a wider conflict? EUROPE VULNERABLE FROM WEST TO EAST Europe’s vulnerability is not a lack of military power, as discussed in previous articles. It is the growing uncertainty surrounding its reliance on the United States. For decades, European security has depended on NATO’s collective defence, underpinned by American military strength and Washington’s commitment to defend its allies. However, mix...

Last week, I wrote about how U.S. President Donald Trump made a deal with Vladimir Putin, the dictator of Russia, to import diesel. Since this deal was announced, it has caused furore among U.S. allies, and it seems that in the days since, things have only gotten worse for Ukraine. Starlink was shut off and slowed down for Ukraine, Trump demanded that Zelenskyy step down, and a so-called energy ceasefire was announced by Trump. This ceasefire came as a surprise to both Putin and Zelenskyy, and, of course, Russia doubled down on its attacks on Kyiv. What can we do in a situation where Trump does not seem to care about the consequences, but simply wants this war to end because it “pushes prices up,” despite the fact that the war in Iran is actually a major factor behind soaring diesel and gas prices? Credit for image: Wikimedia Commons WHAT HAPPENED IN UKRAINE THIS PAST WEEK? Over the past week, the situation in Ukraine has deteriorated sharply, particularly as tensions between Kyiv and ...

Last Friday, Trump announced plans to lift U.S. sanctions on Russian oil. An unprecedented move that could help ease gasoline prices for American consumers just ahead of the midterm elections. But while lower prices at the pump may offer short-term relief, the decision could have far-reaching consequences well beyond the United States, potentially leaving Ukraine in an even more vulnerable position. In this blog post, we’ll examine what Trump has done and what it could mean for the global economy, energy markets, and the war in Ukraine. Trump has also openly called for President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to step down. But, would that actually be a smart move, and what could it mean for Ukraine? And perhaps most importantly: why does the United States remain dependent on global oil and diesel markets, including energy supplies historically linked to its geopolitical rival, Russia? Let’s take a closer look at the decision, its potential consequences, and the bigger geopolitical picture behind ...

We often talk about the possibility of Russia attacking a NATO country within the next few months or the next two years. While no one can say with certainty when or if such a conflict might happen, some experts believe that the risk could become more serious by the end of the decade. But how prepared is NATO for such a scenario? On paper, NATO countries are far wealthier, more powerful and militarily stronger than Russia. At first glance, it looks almost like a fight between David and Goliath. However, this time, Goliath has the advantage. So why do we keep hearing that NATO may not be ready for a major war? In this blog post, I want to look at the statistics behind Russia versus NATO. What do the numbers actually tell us? Where does NATO have an overwhelming advantage, and where are its weaknesses? And, perhaps most importantly, why do analysts continue to question NATO's readiness despite its enormous economic and military power? NATO VS RUSSA IN NUMBERS   Combined Wealth If we r...

This week, I want to focus on a small Ukrainian city that is currently under Russian occupation. Oleshky is located on the left bank of the Dnipro River, directly across from Kherson, which lies on the right bank. There are still around 2,000 Ukrainians living in this small town. Russia has occupied Oleshky since 2022. In this blog post, let's discuss the ongoing famine and hardship that the town is facing, and what Ukraine is trying to do about it. On a broader scale, let's also look at the alleged war crimes and abuses taking place under the occupation. A TOWN UNDER OCCUPATION Oleshky is one of the oldest cities in southern Ukraine. Before the full-scale invasion, it had just over 24,000 residents. It was among the towns occupied at the beginning of the invasion. Since then, many of its former residents have fled, while others have died as a result of the war. Since 2022, Oleshky has experienced one tragedy after another. On March 20, 2023, about a year after its occupation, ...