EDITOR'S CORNER: What Happens When Putin Gets Desperate

In the past few months, Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian troops back in several areas while grinding Russia’s offensives to a halt across much of the front. At the same time, Moscow continues to burn through staggering amounts of manpower, losing thousands of soldiers every month in exchange for minimal gains. Ukrainian drones are also striking deeper inside Russia with increasing frequency, hammering oil refineries, ammunition depots, and critical infrastructure. This includes targets hundreds of kilometers from the battlefield.

Yet despite the mounting losses, recruitment shortages, and growing economic pressure, the Kremlin still refuses to seriously pursue a peace deal or even agree to a ceasefire.

In this week’s post, I want to explore what happens if Putin starts to feel cornered. There are several scenarios already being discussed behind the scenes. Some are more dangerous than others. We will look at a few of them, and the possible consequences if they become reality.

OVERALL BATTLEFIELD SITUATION

The war in Ukraine may be starting to shift direction. At least, compared to the bleak picture many expected a year ago. Over the last few months, Russian advances have slowed dramatically, while Ukraine has managed to stabilize several parts of the front and even regain small pockets of territory in some sectors. The battlefield is still brutal and costly, but the momentum Russia once had appears to be fading.

At the same time, Russia is paying an enormous price for every kilometre gained. Western intelligence estimates suggest that Russia is suffering tens of thousands of casualties every month, including thousands killed on the front lines. Ukrainian drone strikes are also becoming increasingly effective, targeting oil refineries, ammunition depots, rail hubs, and military infrastructure deep inside Russian territory. Some attacks now reach hundreds of kilometres away from the front, exposing vulnerabilities that Moscow once believed were untouchable.

Despite the losses, the economic pressure, and growing difficulties recruiting manpower, the Kremlin still shows little willingness to seriously negotiate a peace settlement or even agree to a lasting ceasefire. Instead, Russia continues to rely on attritional warfare and constant pressure along multiple fronts. In this week’s post, I want to explore what happens if that pressure starts pushing Putin into desperation. There are several scenarios analysts and officials have discussed quietly for months. We will look at some of them — and the possible consequences if any of them become reality.

UKRAINE'S TACTICS

We've long discussed Ukraine's drone tactics, which have worked very effectively in disturbing Russia in many ways. The latest feather in Ukraine's cap was the strike in St Petersburg on the first day of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. It was very embarrassing for Putin to have many international delegates, including some from the United States, and have a big explosion right by their event location.

Ukraine also has a goal of killing about 50,000 Russian soldiers per month. This figure means that more soldiers get put out of action than the Kremlin can recruit. It is also a horrific message to all the Russians thinking about enlisting in the Army.

Western partners continue to fund Ukraine with money, weapons and support. However, Ukraine also has good capabilities by itself.

We can summarize Ukraine's goals as damaging Russia's economy, making it difficult to get more bodies for the meat grinder, and constantly improvising and innovating its own capabilities. And on top of this, continuing to ask Western partners for support.

WHAT CAN PUTIN DO IF HE IS DESPERATE?

Because Ukraine's tactics are very successful, we're in a situation where things can get escalated very quickly. There has been speculation for many years about different events that Putin could use to push things further in a way that makes it hard for Ukraine to fight on the level it is now.

We have seen this with the damaging of the Kakhovka Dam. This event led to many deaths, land lost, and an ecological disaster. The next things Putin might do might be a lot worse.

One such event that has been widely discussed since the start of the war is a nuclear disaster. This can come in two ways. The first way can be if Russia uses a tactical nuclear weapon. The second way is by triggering a Chernobyl-type disaster from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

The chances of using a nuclear bomb are very small, and it is extremely dangerous. However, it is something that the Kremlin has threatened since 2022. But if the second option is taken, then this is something that they will blame on Ukraine. It will also be extremely devastating. We need to remember that Chernobyl affected almost every single country in Europe.

Another way that some analysts have suggested Putin might escalate is by removing Zelenskyy through assassination. We know from Zelenskyy himself that at the beginning of the war Russia had attempted to kill him at least a dozen times. This is a very interesting thought because the Ukrainian president is a big part of Ukraine's success. He's also a symbol of resilience and fighting spirit for many Ukrainians and others.

By killing Zelenskyy, Putin could destabilize Ukraine enough that they would cede to Moscow's demands. However, I don't agree with this view. I think Putin can try to get rid of Zelenskyy, but he won't be successful. First of all, the Ukrainian president has very strong security. Secondly, Ukraine and its fight for freedom and democracy do not lie on the shoulders of one man. If Zelenskyy is gone, his replacement might be a lot more patriotic and demand that they fight to the last man, last bullet, last drop of blood.

Another option to throw out there is not targeted at Ukraine. However, it will be targeted at Europe. Russia might try to scare Ukraine's allies by putting pressure on citizens through sabotage, cyberattacks against infrastructure, and other hybrid war tactics. Democracies run on votes, and people who are scared will not vote for governments who support Ukraine in that scenario.

HOW IS THE PEACE PROCESS GOING?

Let's also discuss the peace process. We haven't heard much about this in the past few months. This is because it has effectively stopped. The United States has indicated that the two parties remain far apart in their positions. Therefore, its ability to help further appears limited.

Europe is discussing that it might be a good idea to open dialogues with Russia. However, there is no consensus on how to do that, who will do it and when. There is also argument amongst European countries about the role that we should play at the negotiation table. Europe wants to be a full party with a full opinion, not a mediator.

Russia insists on unsatisfactory demands for Ukraine. Mostly, this includes ceding all of Donbas and Luhansk. Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, said that fighting will keep continuing and Russia will reach its goals by force.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, Ukraine is doing really well, even though the war is at a stalemate. Russian advances have slowed considerably. The situation in the country is also not very good. Putin has to deal with economic pressure, an increasingly restless society due to internet cuts, and tensions within parts of the elite. There is no way out for Putin. He has to win in Ukraine soon, a satisfactory peace still has to happen, or Ukraine has to be strangled by force.

We, in Europe, still have an opportunity to give Ukraine more weapons, more money, and more support. We should change our attitude from "as long as it takes" to "whatever they need". A win for Ukraine, in the shortest possible time, is the saving grace for Europe.

A nuclear disaster, either from a nuclear plant or bomb, will affect us for many generations. A European president being assassinated by Russia could open the door for other European leaders to be targeted as well. Major acts of sabotage in Europe would mean Europeans suffering, and could also threaten our democracies.

We should weigh the pros and the cons and make a decision that best supports us, and support Ukraine. Russia should not win.