CLOAK AND CABINET

When people talk about  the Iran war, we tend to focus on Iran itself: the nuclear program, the Hormuz Strait struggles, how any American strikes there was. However, the war is now slowly expanding to other places, and the most important consequences of the war are happening also somewhere else.  Across Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq, armed groups connected to Iran are fighting, reorganizing and adapting to a rapidly changing Middle East. These fronts are not simply side battles. They are part of a wider contest over who will shape the region after the current war ends. In this week’s blog post, let’s look at Iran’s network across the region and ask whether it can survive the war with America. Attribution: CyberPen / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0 IN LEBANON, HEZBOLLAH’S PROBLEM IS NO LONGER SIMPLY ISRAEL For a long time, Hezbollah has been an important part of Iran’s regional strategy. Its political and military influence in Lebanon gave Tehran a powerful partner right on Isra...

September 11, 2001, marked a defining moment in modern history, altering the course of global events. On that day, coordinated terrorist attacks shocked the United States and the world, killing nearly 3,000 innocent people and creating a profound sense of national unity in the immediate aftermath. The attacks reshaped global security strategies and foreign policies, with lasting effects on international relations and personal lives. Known simply as “9/11,” the tragedy claimed nearly 3,000 lives and set the stage for sweeping changes in how nations addressed security and terrorism. In this blog post, marking the 25th anniversary of this tragic event, we will explore the events leading up to September 11, 2001, the harrowing occurrences of that day, and the profound aftermath that transformed both the United States and the world. The 9/11 attack was devastating (Copyright) THE BACKGROUND OF THE ATTACKS Al-Qaeda, the terrorist organization responsible for the 9/11 attacks, traces part of ...

Before the conflict began, many expected the war with Iran to be short. President Trump and his supporters appeared to believe that Iran would be unable to sustain a prolonged fight. At the same time, anti-government protests had been taking place across the country, leading some to predict that internal unrest would quickly weaken the Iranian regime. The reality has been more complicated. Although Iran cannot match the United States in military technology or conventional firepower, it has demonstrated resilience, patience, and a willingness to absorb significant costs. Unlike many Western democracies, Iran's leadership also faces fewer domestic political constraints when it comes to sustaining a long conflict. In this blog post, I explore how the conflict has evolved over time, why many early predictions proved inaccurate, and what the consequences could be if the war continues for an extended period. THE WAR IN A NUTSHELL Let's take a step back and look at how the war has u...

Trump's special military operation in Iran has now been going on for almost two months. In this time, not much has been achieved. So what is America's plan with this war? In this week's blog post, I want to explore what is going on in Iran: what America's goals are, and how this conflict might end. THE WAR SO FAR Iran has been going through a very turbulent time over the past year. There were widespread protests, during which many people died. These protests were largely related to the economic situation in Iran. Many people felt that the regime did not support them. Young people in particular felt that they had no opportunities. Trump appears to have seen an opportunity to encourage these protests to grow. Alongside the unrest, he took the chance to launch attacks. Two months on, however, we still do not know exactly why. During the time the war has been going on, Ali Khamenei has been killed and replaced by his son. We have not seen the son publicly since the start of...

On 3rd January 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump led a military operation in Venezuela to capture President Nicolás Maduro on alleged drug charges. The mission was swift and ruthless, lasting only a few hours, and it successfully resulted in the arrest of Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. They are now in New York, facing trial on drug-related charges. On top of this, Trump has been threatening several other countries in Latin America, and has even gone as far as claiming that the U.S. will take Greenland because “they need it for their defence.” In this blog post, we’ll briefly look at the Venezuela operation, and then spend more time analyzing what it means for global geopolitics—and more specifically, why Trump seems so obsessed with Greenland.     WHAT HAPPENED IN VENEZUELA? On 3 January 2026, United States forces carried out a rapid military operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. According to U.S. offici...

The United States’ 2025 National Security Strategy was published on December 4th. It sets out the priorities of the U.S. government for the upcoming administration, its main goals, strategic direction, and expectations for global partners, as well as how it intends to position itself on the world stage. It is a critical document that U.S. allies look to in order to understand how to navigate their relationships with an increasingly unpredictable Trump administration. Unfortunately, despite its significance, this 30 page document falls short. It presents a deeply insular “America First” approach, combined with the assertion that the United States can intervene anywhere it deems necessary in the name of “protecting the interests of the American people.” In practical terms, this means asserting authority over other nations’ governments, laws, and internal affairs whenever Washington labels something a threat. In this blog post, I will break down the strategy, focusing especially on what ...

For decades, American diplomacy has traditionally followed a structured and institutional approach shaped by the State Department, multilateral cooperation, and standardized policy frameworks. The current U.S. strategy in mediating the Ukraine–Russia peace process, however, looks extremely different. Rather than following classical diplomatic norms, Washington is now approaching the conflict as though it were a business negotiation. This is most evident in the strong involvement of Steve Witkoff, the US envoy with a background in real estate, investment, and deal-making. Their methods reflect the growing influence of American business culture on global conflict resolution, due to Trump's own background in this area. The result is an approach that treats the war not only as a geopolitical crisis but also as a complex transaction in which leverage, incentives, and practical outcomes matter more than ideological alignment. In this blog post, let's analyze how this approach will be...

Last week, we examined how the United States has fallen short in supporting Ukraine by promoting a 28-point peace plan that leaves Ukraine cornered while granting Russia much of what it wants. The aggressor—the state responsible for the invasion—appears to be gaining the advantage, while the victim is left constrained with limited options. Now, let’s consider another scenario: Europe turning its back on an America that has become an increasingly unpredictable ally. How would Europe measure up without U.S. military capabilities?       WHAT SUPPORT IS USA GIVING EUROPE? The United States provides Europe with a significant share of its overall military security through a large and diverse forward presence. Around 80,000–100,000 U.S. troops are stationed or rotating through Europe, including reinforced deployments on NATO’s eastern flank since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This presence includes brigade combat teams, armored units, aviation detachments, air defense...

This week was dominated by news of a leaked 28-point peace plan, drafted by U.S. and Russian officials—without Ukraine or European input. The plan reads like a wish list from the Kremlin and puts Ukraine in an undignified and impossible position. The U.S. is pressuring Zelenskyy to accept it, or face consequences. Let’s take a closer look at this peace plan—and why it is utterly rubbish. The U.S. is showing less of a global leadership role and more of a greedy uncle, willing to side with criminals above all else. THE SO CALLED " PEACE PLAN"   The leaked 28-point plan is a U.S.–Russia proposal to end the war. It keeps Ukraine’s sovereignty but adds strict military, political, and territorial rules. Ukraine would get security guarantees, but only if it limits its army to 600,000 troops, promises never to join NATO, hosts no NATO forces, and stays non-nuclear. Russia would promise not to attack Ukraine or Europe, and both sides would solve security issues through a new dialogue...