CLOAK AND CABINET

This week, I want to focus on a small Ukrainian city that is currently under Russian occupation. Oleshky is located on the left bank of the Dnipro River, directly across from Kherson, which lies on the right bank. There are still around 2,000 Ukrainians living in this small town. Russia has occupied Oleshky since 2022. In this blog post, let's discuss the ongoing famine and hardship that the town is facing, and what Ukraine is trying to do about it. On a broader scale, let's also look at the alleged war crimes and abuses taking place under the occupation. A TOWN UNDER OCCUPATION Oleshky is one of the oldest cities in southern Ukraine. Before the full-scale invasion, it had just over 24,000 residents. It was among the towns occupied at the beginning of the invasion. Since then, many of its former residents have fled, while others have died as a result of the war. Since 2022, Oleshky has experienced one tragedy after another. On March 20, 2023, about a year after its occupation, ...

As we roll into September, temperatures are cooling, the rains are coming, and Ukraine is facing the prospect of another difficult winter. Russia's war of terror is still raging and becoming increasingly violent. In this week's blog, I want to look at what kind of winter Ukraine may face and the challenges ahead. Europe and NATO also need to be aware, as the hybrid threat continues to grow stronger. (Copyright: Wikipedia Commons, dsns.gov.ua ) BALLISTIC MISSILES AND DRONE STRIKES During the summer, Russia has made some limited territorial gains, but it has not achieved a major breakthrough on the battlefield. Ukraine has also struggled to make significant territorial gains. Much of the fighting has increasingly moved beyond the front line, with both sides relying heavily on long-range strikes. Ukraine has expanded its campaign of long-range drone strikes against targets inside Russia, including oil refineries, military depots and other parts of Russia's military and energy ...

August 24th is Ukraine's Independence Day. This is year marks 35 years since the Verkhovna Rada adopted the Act of Declaration of Independence. It has now been 4 years and 6 months since the war, or 1,642 days. The day feels somehow more important this year. 35 years since Ukraine escaped from the strangling yoke of the Russian rule. And now, they have to fight tooth and nail, land liberated inch by inch, peppered with the blood and sacrifice of hundred of thousands of brave Ukrainian defenders.  Today, I want to have a look at what independence means when the country is at war. And how much is it worth paying in blood and sacrifice of people.     IT STARTED IN 1991, BUT THAT WAS JUST THE BEGINNING August 24th, 1991, was the day Ukraine declared independence as the Soviet Union was collapsing. It was a historic moment for a nation whose language, culture, and identity had been suppressed for decades under Soviet rule. However, it was also the beginning of a difficult...

More than four years after Russia launched its full scale, brutal invasion of Ukraine, one question continues to dominate headlines and people’s minds: “When will peace come?” Even Putin has acknowledged in a recent meeting that peace will eventually come. However, nobody can predict when.  A ceasefire could come unexpectedly, negotiations could produce a breakthrough, or the conflict could continue for years. What makes the war particularly difficult to predict is that its outcome depends not only on what happens on the battlefield, but also on what happens inside Russia and on Ukraine’s ability to maintain or strengthen its position. Western support, military developments, Russia’s economic struggles, and even tensions within Putin’s inner circle are all closely connected and could influence how the war unfolds. In this blog post, we examine the factors that could determine if and when the conflict ends. Would a lasting peace or a temporary ceasefire be more realistic? What could...

The past few weeks has been one of the most politically dramatic periods in Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy carried out a sweeping government reshuffle, replacing the prime minister, Yulia Svyrydenko dismissing the defence minister, and making many other changes across the cabinet. The outgoing prime minister was offered a diplomatic post in Washington, which she has still not accepted formally. The dismissal of Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, in particular, sparked strong reactions among many Ukrainians, who viewed him as one of the key architects of the country's technological and military innovation, and sweeping changes for the better in the defence forces. Perhaps the most significant change, however, came within Ukraine's military leadership. Zelenskyy also replaced Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi with Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi.  In this post, we'll look at what happened, why thes...

In the past few months, Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian troops back in several areas while grinding Russia’s offensives to a halt across much of the front. At the same time, Moscow continues to burn through staggering amounts of manpower, losing thousands of soldiers every month in exchange for minimal gains. Ukrainian drones are also striking deeper inside Russia with increasing frequency, hammering oil refineries, ammunition depots, and critical infrastructure. This includes targets hundreds of kilometers from the battlefield. Yet despite the mounting losses, recruitment shortages, and growing economic pressure, the Kremlin still refuses to seriously pursue a peace deal or even agree to a ceasefire. In this week’s post, I want to explore what happens if Putin starts to feel cornered. There are several scenarios already being discussed behind the scenes. Some are more dangerous than others. We will look at a few of them, and the possible consequences if they become reality. OVERA...

This week, it's really hard to think what topic to write about. The world right now is constantly changing around us, and attention is being drawn away from the war in Ukraine. What's going on in Iran, the price of oil, the rising cost of living, and the situation with China are grabbing people's attention. In this week's blog, let's focus on Ukraine because it's still necessary to look at the war and what's going on there. SITUATION IN EUROPE The situation in Ukraine has not changed very much, so I won't be focusing on that today. The front line situation is slightly improving in Ukraine's favor. They are pushing back the Russians, but not by much. For Victory Day, there was an exchange of 1,000 prisoners on each side. However, drones and missiles keep hitting Ukrainian cities every single night. People are dying: civilians, children, and the elderly. Europe's situation is now different, so let's focus on that. Why the European situation has...

The Ukraine war is no longer just a conflict between Ukraine and Russia. It has expanded far beyond Europe, reaching into the Middle East and even Africa. But how did this happen? The growing conflict involving Iran has pushed modern drone warfare directly onto NATO’s doorstep and into the strategic calculations of its allies. At the same time, global energy markets have become increasingly interconnected as instability around the Strait of Hormuz threatens one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes. As a result, many countries are being forced to rely more heavily on energy supplies from the United States, China, and other regions outside the Middle East. This has also transformed Ukraine’s strategy of targeting Russian oil refineries into something much larger than a regional military tactic. What began as an effort to weaken Russia’s war economy has evolved into a form of kinetic economic warfare with global consequences — affecting fuel prices, supply chains, and energy ...

This week, I want to take a closer look at the war in Ukraine, with a particular focus on the occupied territories. The situation in these areas remains deeply concerning, and it is important that we continue to talk about it. The war has now lasted for more than a decade since Russia’s initial intervention in 2014, and there is always a risk that people outside the region begin to look away. That must not happen. In this post, I will look at which areas are occupied, how civilians are reportedly being treated, and why the future of these regions remains central to any discussion of peace. UKRAINE’S OCCUPIED AREAS Russia currently controls roughly one-fifth of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory. This includes most or all of Crimea, large parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and occupied areas in the south, including parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Cities such as Mariupol have also been under Russian control since earlier stages of the full-scale invasion. Life in th...

Three weeks in, and the war in Iran is only growing more complicated. As noted last week, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices are still elevated, and questions about America’s intentions in Iran persist—still unresolved after all this time. One notable development in the conversation surrounding this conflict is the comparison being drawn between Iran and Ukraine: which war matters more, and which is more likely to reshape the balance of power on the global stage? That’s the question I want to explore in this post. In the shadow of a new and escalating crisis, are we beginning to forget Ukraine? WHAT IS GOING ON IN IRAN? At this stage, the situation in Iran remains tense but largely unchanged in its broader trajectory. Reports continue to suggest ongoing exchanges between Iran and opposing forces in the region, with military activity contributing to instability across neighboring countries. States such as Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar are feeling the spillover effects o...