CLOAK AND CABINET

This week, I want to focus on a small Ukrainian city that is currently under Russian occupation. Oleshky is located on the left bank of the Dnipro River, directly across from Kherson, which lies on the right bank. There are still around 2,000 Ukrainians living in this small town. Russia has occupied Oleshky since 2022. In this blog post, let's discuss the ongoing famine and hardship that the town is facing, and what Ukraine is trying to do about it. On a broader scale, let's also look at the alleged war crimes and abuses taking place under the occupation. A TOWN UNDER OCCUPATION Oleshky is one of the oldest cities in southern Ukraine. Before the full-scale invasion, it had just over 24,000 residents. It was among the towns occupied at the beginning of the invasion. Since then, many of its former residents have fled, while others have died as a result of the war. Since 2022, Oleshky has experienced one tragedy after another. On March 20, 2023, about a year after its occupation, ...

More than four years after Russia launched its full scale, brutal invasion of Ukraine, one question continues to dominate headlines and people’s minds: “When will peace come?” Even Putin has acknowledged in a recent meeting that peace will eventually come. However, nobody can predict when.  A ceasefire could come unexpectedly, negotiations could produce a breakthrough, or the conflict could continue for years. What makes the war particularly difficult to predict is that its outcome depends not only on what happens on the battlefield, but also on what happens inside Russia and on Ukraine’s ability to maintain or strengthen its position. Western support, military developments, Russia’s economic struggles, and even tensions within Putin’s inner circle are all closely connected and could influence how the war unfolds. In this blog post, we examine the factors that could determine if and when the conflict ends. Would a lasting peace or a temporary ceasefire be more realistic? What could...

There are growing rumours that Russia is preparing for another round of forced mobilisation. If it happens, it is likely to take place in the autumn, after the Kremlin's state elections. In the meantime, the government appears to be laying the groundwork by introducing new laws that further restrict citizens' freedom of movement and expand the state's ability to monitor and control the population. Taken together, these measures point towards a level of state oversight that rivals and in some respects may even exceed that of the Soviet era. In this blog post, I will examine how realistic another large scale mobilisation is, the challenges Russia would face in carrying it out, and the potential consequences such a move could have for the country. LESSONS FROM THE 2022 MOBILISATION Russia's partial mobilisation in September 2022 provides the clearest indication of what another large scale mobilisation could look like. The Kremlin announced that it would call up 300,000 res...

Belarus is often described as Europe's last dictatorship. Led by Aleksandr Lukashenko since 1994, the country has become one of Vladimir Putin's closest allies. As Russia's war against Ukraine continues, Belarus has repeatedly found itself at the centre of speculation over whether it could become directly involved in the conflict. In recent weeks, Ukraine has warned that it may strike military infrastructure inside Belarus if Minsk does not remove what it sees as a growing threat. In this blog post, we'll explore who Aleksandr Lukashenko is, how he rose to power, and whether Belarus is actually likely to enter the war in Ukraine. WHO IS ALEKSANDR LUKASHENKO? Aleksandr Lukashenko was born on 30 August 1954 in Kopys, a small village in the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic, the name of Belarus when it was part of the Soviet Union. He was raised by his mother in a single-parent household on a farm. Life was modest, as they lived in a small rural village. Lukashenko ne...

Since the war in Ukraine took an interesting turn from conventional warfare to drones, the question on everyone’s lips has been whether Europe should still keep investing in expensive military equipment such as tanks and jets. Cheap drones and missiles appear to be making a major difference in the war in Ukraine. So why spend so much money on traditional weapons when there is already a lack of funding in other areas? Education and health systems, after all, do not fund themselves. This week, let’s break down why conventional warfare is still very much relevant—and why Europe continues to need expensive military materiel alongside cheap drones. UKRAINE, A BIG AND FLAT NATION The war in Ukraine could initially be fought with tanks and large mechanized formations because Ukraine’s geography allows for it. It is a vast, relatively flat country with wide open fields and long land borders, which makes it suitable for maneuver warfare where tanks, artillery, and infantry can operate across la...

In the past few months, Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian troops back in several areas while grinding Russia’s offensives to a halt across much of the front. At the same time, Moscow continues to burn through staggering amounts of manpower, losing thousands of soldiers every month in exchange for minimal gains. Ukrainian drones are also striking deeper inside Russia with increasing frequency, hammering oil refineries, ammunition depots, and critical infrastructure. This includes targets hundreds of kilometers from the battlefield. Yet despite the mounting losses, recruitment shortages, and growing economic pressure, the Kremlin still refuses to seriously pursue a peace deal or even agree to a ceasefire. In this week’s post, I want to explore what happens if Putin starts to feel cornered. There are several scenarios already being discussed behind the scenes. Some are more dangerous than others. We will look at a few of them, and the possible consequences if they become reality. OVERA...

May 9 marks Russia’s Victory Day, commemorating the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II. It is one of the country’s most significant and emotional holidays, honouring Red Army sacrifices while also showcasing state power through parades and patriotic displays. For decades, the day has been used to emphasize unity and continuity, a narrative strengthened under Vladimir Putin by linking WWII’s legacy to present struggles. In 2026, however, the tone has shifted. The war in Ukraine, security concerns, and international isolation have reshaped the celebrations, blending remembrance of past victory with the pressures of an uncertain present. THE HISTORICAL ROOTS OF VICTORY DAY Victory Day stems from May 9th, 1945, when Nazi Germany formally surrendered to Soviet Forces. For the Soviet Union, this war was existential, and it had a big impact on the Soviet society. Entire cities were destroyed, millions of people died on the battlefield and in war camps, and the victory came at an enormous ...

Several Telegram channels have recently promoted the idea of a “Narva People’s Republic". This campaign closely resembles the messaging used during the occupation of Crimea and Donbas in 2014. While small channels alone may have limited influence, the broader context is concerning. Russian television hosts are also openly discussing the possibility of invading Narva to disrupt NATO, and several high-level European leaders have warned that Russia could test Europe in the near future. Taken together, these signals raise serious concerns about regional security in Europe.  This week’s blog post explores these questions: How capable is Russia of striking Europe, and are the Baltic states at risk of an attack in the near term?   WHAT IS THE NARVA PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC? Over the past few weeks, a number of pro-Russian Telegram channels and social media accounts have been circulating claims about a so-called “ Narva People’s Republic ” in north-eastern Estonia, near the Russian border. T...

We are approaching the fourth anniversary of the start of the war in Ukraine. Over these years, Ukrainians have been subjected to relentless terror by Russia through a wide range of means—many of them amounting to war crimes, acts of terrorism, and the deliberate infliction of mass civilian suffering. On the front lines, the fighting has been brutal and unrelenting. Away from them, civilian life has offered little refuge. This is especially true now, as winter temperatures plunge and Russia continues to strike Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, leaving millions without heat, electricity, or basic security. In this blog post, I want to focus on the methods Russia uses to terrorize Ukrainians. History shows that this approach is not new. From the era of the tsars through the Bolshevik revolution and beyond, Russia has relied on a war playbook rooted in brutality: targeting civilians, spreading fear, and engaging in ruthless, unethical tactics. These are actions that we in the West would n...

For centuries, Russia has promoted its culture and language as major global exports and symbols of national achievement. At the same time, other countries have often romanticized Russian history and culture, portraying them as exotic and intriguing themes that capture widespread attention. As a result, when people refer to anything “Slavic,” they frequently default to Russian associations. This can be in personality traits, films, cuisine, or aesthetics. Despite the fact that many countries share Slavic heritage, Russia has become the most prominent and recognizable representative of it. Why does this matter? Because the way Russia and Russian culture are portrayed in music, film, and other forms of art carries implicit messages. Art and culture function as powerful tools of soft power, shaping perceptions and subtly influencing how people think and feel about a nation. In this blog post, I will explore this dynamic and its broader implications, focusing primarily on its relevance to t...