BELARUS: The Rise and Potential Fall of Aleksandr Lukashenko

Belarus is often described as Europe's last dictatorship. Led by Aleksandr Lukashenko since 1994, the country has become one of Vladimir Putin's closest allies. As Russia's war against Ukraine continues, Belarus has repeatedly found itself at the centre of speculation over whether it could become directly involved in the conflict. In recent weeks, Ukraine has warned that it may strike military infrastructure inside Belarus if Minsk does not remove what it sees as a growing threat.

In this blog post, we'll explore who Aleksandr Lukashenko is, how he rose to power, and whether Belarus is actually likely to enter the war in Ukraine.

WHO IS ALEKSANDR LUKASHENKO?

Aleksandr Lukashenko was born on 30 August 1954 in Kopys, a small village in the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic, the name of Belarus when it was part of the Soviet Union. He was raised by his mother in a single-parent household on a farm. Life was modest, as they lived in a small rural village. Lukashenko never met his father, who left the family when he was still a baby. As a young man, he studied history and economics before serving in the Soviet Border Troops and later in the Soviet Army. After completing his studies, he worked in a variety of jobs, including as a teacher, farm manager, and director of a state farm. These roles gave him a strong experience in agriculture and local administration.

Lukashenko entered politics in the late 1980s, just as the Soviet Union was beginning to collapse. In 1990, he was elected to the Belarusian parliament, where he became known for speaking out against corruption. His reputation as an anti-corruption campaigner helped him win the country's first presidential election in 1994. At just 39 years old, he became the first president of independent Belarus after the country gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. However, many critics argue that this proved to be a costly decision for the Belarusian people.

Lukashenko has remained in power ever since, making him one of Europe's longest-serving leaders. Belarus is widely described as Europe's last dictatorship, and his government maintains close political and economic ties with Russia. Much of the country's economy remains under state control, preserving many features of the Soviet economic system. Throughout his rule, Lukashenko has faced repeated criticism from Western governments and international human rights organizations. His administration has been accused of suppressing political opposition, restricting freedom of the press, and holding elections that are neither free nor fair. International observers have repeatedly claimed that these elections have been rigged in his favour, allowing him to maintain his grip on power.

LUKASHENKO'S CLOSE TIES WITH THE KREMLIN 

Aleksandr Lukashenko's relationship with Vladimir Putin is one of the defining features of Belarusian foreign policy. The two leaders have occasionally disagreed over economic issues and Belarus's independence, but such disagreements have been rare. Belarus cannot afford a serious conflict with Russia, as Lukashenko relies heavily on Moscow for political, financial, and military support. This dependence grew even stronger after the disputed 2020 Belarusian presidential election, when Russia openly backed Lukashenko as he faced mass protests and international condemnation.

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Belarus has become Moscow's closest military ally. Russian forces used Belarusian territory to launch their initial assault on Kyiv. Since then, the two countries have expanded joint military exercises, integrated their air-defence systems, and increased the presence of Russian troops and weapons in Belarus. Although Lukashenko has avoided sending Belarusian ground troops into the war, his government has continued to provide strategic support to Russia. This has further strengthened the alliance between the two countries.

RISING TENSIONS BETWEEN LUKASHENKO AND ZELENSKYY

Recently, tensions between Belarus and Ukraine have risen sharply. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Belarus of allowing Russian military infrastructure on its territory to support attacks against Ukraine. He claimed that signal relay stations inside Belarus were helping Russian drone operations. Zelenskyy warned that Belarus had one week to remove the equipment. Otherwise, Ukraine would destroy the infrastructure itself.

Lukashenko rejected the accusations and insisted that Belarus did not want to become directly involved in the war. He warned Ukraine not to drag Belarus into the conflict and repeated that his country would only fight if it were attacked. A few days later, Zelenskyy said the relay stations had stopped operating, although it remains unclear whether they were dismantled or simply switched off. The dispute highlighted the growing tensions between Kyiv and Minsk, while also showing Lukashenko's difficult position as he tries to support Russia without becoming directly involved in the war. 

After these relay stations were shut down, Lukashenko was summoned to Russia in a two-day secret meeting. 

A TIGHTROPE AND A TICKING TIME BOMB

The pressure on Belarus to support Russia's war plans continues to grow. So far, Lukashenko has done everything he can to avoid sending Belarusian troops into the conflict. However, balancing support for Moscow while avoiding direct involvement is becoming increasingly difficult. At some point, he may be forced to make a clear choice: commit Belarus to the war or risk damaging his relationship with the Kremlin and facing consequences from Russia.

For Lukashenko, either option carries serious risks. Sending Belarusian troops into Ukraine could provoke widespread public opposition, as many Belarusians have shown little support for entering the war. It would also make Belarus a much bigger target for Ukrainian military strikes. On the other hand, refusing Moscow's demands could strain his relationship with Vladimir Putin, the leader who has become his most important political and economic backer. Without Russian support, Lukashenko's grip on power could become far more uncertain.

Lukashenko also faces the possibility of being drawn into a wider conflict with NATO, a scenario that would be far more dangerous than direct involvement in Ukraine alone. Some military analysts have speculated that, if Russia were to launch an attack against Poland, Belarusian territory could be used as a staging ground.  One frequently discussed flashpoint is the Suwałki Gap, the narrow strip of land between Poland and Lithuania that separates Belarus from Russia's Kaliningrad exclave. 

In theory, capturing this corridor would create a land connection between Kaliningrad and Belarus. However, there is no confirmed evidence that such an attack is planned, and any attempt to seize the Suwałki Gap would almost certainly trigger NATO's collective defence under Article 5, making it one of the riskiest military scenarios in Europe.

CONCLUSION

Lukashenko has ruled Belarus for more than three decades by balancing between East and West, but that balancing act is becoming harder to maintain. As Russia's closest ally, every new escalation in the war brings Belarus one step closer to a decision that could reshape the country's future.

Whether Belarus remains on the sidelines or becomes directly involved in the conflict may ultimately depend less on Lukashenko's own wishes than on the pressure coming from Moscow. Whatever happens next, his next move could have consequences far beyond Belarus's borders.