EDITOR'S CORNER: When Will the Russia–Ukraine War End?

More than four years after Russia launched its full scale, brutal invasion of Ukraine, one question continues to dominate headlines and people’s minds: “When will peace come?” Even Putin has acknowledged in a recent meeting that peace will eventually come. However, nobody can predict when. 

A ceasefire could come unexpectedly, negotiations could produce a breakthrough, or the conflict could continue for years. What makes the war particularly difficult to predict is that its outcome depends not only on what happens on the battlefield, but also on what happens inside Russia and on Ukraine’s ability to maintain or strengthen its position. Western support, military developments, Russia’s economic struggles, and even tensions within Putin’s inner circle are all closely connected and could influence how the war unfolds.

In this blog post, we examine the factors that could determine if and when the conflict ends. Would a lasting peace or a temporary ceasefire be more realistic? What could influence Putin to negotiate or eventually give up his pursuit of victory, particularly when Russia’s leadership continues to frame the war in terms of national strength, glory, and victory?

FOUR YEARS WITH A FEW SMALL BREAKS

Ukraine has succeeded to negotiate a few small ceasefires in the time that the war has been going on. These evacuations were mostly aimed at allowing civilians to escape to safety, while the bullets of Russians ricocheted in the distance.

However, these pauses have rarely lasted. In March 2022, several temporary humanitarian ceasefires were agreed to create evacuation corridors from besieged cities, including Mariupol and Sumy. The idea was simple: stop the fighting long enough for civilians to leave. Yet even these limited agreements were surrounded by accusations of violations, and fighting soon resumed. Later attempts at temporary truces followed, including Russia’s unilateral Christmas ceasefire in January 2023 and narrower discussions over attacks on energy infrastructure in 2025. None developed into a lasting halt to the war.

This history is important because it shows just how difficult a genuine peace agreement would be. A ceasefire can stop the shooting for a few hours or days, but it does not resolve the reasons the two sides are fighting. Territory, security guarantees, military strength, political ambitions and deep distrust remain. For Ukraine, agreeing to stop fighting without meaningful guarantees could leave the country vulnerable to another attack. For Russia, accepting a ceasefire without achieving its strategic objectives could be seen as an admission that the war has failed to deliver the victory it promised. 

WHAT ARE BOTH SIDES WILLING TO COMPROMISE? 

This is an interesting question. We actually discussed this topic before, when there were attempts at peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, with the United States acting as a broker. At the time, it often felt more like Trump’s smoke-and-mirrors theatre than a realistic path to peace. Since then, however, those efforts appear to have lost momentum, and the United States seems to have become less interested in actively driving a solution. There have still been diplomatic contacts, but no real breakthrough has emerged.

In one interview, Trump said that he believed the war between Russia and Ukraine would be the easiest and fastest of the “eight wars” he had solved. Unfortunately, there is nothing easy about this war. The fundamental problem is that the two sides are not merely negotiating over a ceasefire; they have fundamentally different ideas about what the end of the war should look like.

Both sides have their own demands, objectives and conditions that would have to be addressed before a meaningful ceasefire could be reached. For Ukraine, the priorities include the return of Ukrainian children who have been taken to Russia, the return of prisoners of war and other Ukrainian detainees, security guarantees for the future, and potentially some form of territorial recovery or settlement.

Russia, on the other hand, is seeking something much closer to victory than compromise. Territorial control, recognition of its claims, limits on Ukraine’s military capabilities and Ukraine’s future relationship with NATO have all been central Russian demands in the various negotiating proposals. Previous rounds of negotiations have repeatedly stalled over precisely these issues.

And that is why I find the whole situation so difficult to resolve. A ceasefire is one thing; a durable peace agreement is something entirely different. Both sides would have to believe that they were better off accepting the agreement than continuing the war. At the moment, neither Russia nor Ukraine appears to be convinced of that.

WHAT AFFECTS BOTH COUNTRIES COMING TO MAKE A DEAL?

In my opinion, peace is still very far off. Both Ukraine and Russia continue to carry out deadly strikes against each other. Ukraine’s attacks on Wildberries storage facilities are making the situation even more precarious, particularly if Russia begins to slide into a deeper economic downturn. At this point, Putin has little incentive to stop. He may continue the war until Russia is pushed to the brink or Ukraine is forced to capitulate.

Ukraine is in a different position, but not a much better one. Its economy continues to be propped up by Western partners. However, next year could bring sweeping changes. Ukraine’s supply of Patriot missiles has become increasingly limited, and despite repeated requests, its allies appear unwilling or unable to provide them in sufficient numbers. The war in Iran has also placed the United States in an increasingly difficult position. American weapons stocks are under significant strain, while NATO as a whole is not yet prepared to expand weapons production quickly enough to match the rate at which munitions are being consumed.

The United States has effectively given up on the trilateral talks, so Europe should now step up and take the lead. However, Europe has its own challenges. Winter is approaching, and Ukraine could face an even more difficult situation than last year as Russia prepares to launch another major campaign against the country’s energy infrastructure.

Zelenskyy has said several times that Ukraine could consider territorial concessions. However, Russia would need to agree to conditions that could give Ukraine a realistic chance at lasting peace. These conditions could include a full Russian troop withdrawal, relinquishing territory that remains occupied by Ukraine, and abandoning demands for complete control of the defensive belt in the Donbas.

CONCLUSION 

As we speculate if Russia is preparing for another mobilization next month, I would say that peace remains very far from Putin’s mind. For Ukraine, the best option for now may be to continue fighting while relying on its partners to maintain their support, continue applying economic pressure on Russia through sanctions, and push the European Union to take stronger action against Russia’s shadow fleet.