CLOAK AND CABINET

This week, I want to focus on a small Ukrainian city that is currently under Russian occupation. Oleshky is located on the left bank of the Dnipro River, directly across from Kherson, which lies on the right bank. There are still around 2,000 Ukrainians living in this small town. Russia has occupied Oleshky since 2022. In this blog post, let's discuss the ongoing famine and hardship that the town is facing, and what Ukraine is trying to do about it. On a broader scale, let's also look at the alleged war crimes and abuses taking place under the occupation. A TOWN UNDER OCCUPATION Oleshky is one of the oldest cities in southern Ukraine. Before the full-scale invasion, it had just over 24,000 residents. It was among the towns occupied at the beginning of the invasion. Since then, many of its former residents have fled, while others have died as a result of the war. Since 2022, Oleshky has experienced one tragedy after another. On March 20, 2023, about a year after its occupation, ...

Over the past few weeks, announcements from countries across Europe have escalated regarding the possibility of a Russian attack on a NATO country. Some call it hysteria, while others say the threat is not being taken seriously enough. However, what is the real picture? As Ukraine continues to struggle for its existence, Europe has to grapple with an ever-growing threat. In this blog post, we ask whether the threat is more real than ever — and whether war will finally arrive in NATO. REAL THREAT OR A FEAR-MONGERING CAMPAIGN? Since 24 February 2022, NATO countries have been sounding the alarm about Russia. Almost every high-ranking politician and military official has said the same thing: Putin is not content with winning in Ukraine; he could eventually pick a fight with NATO. So far, that fight has mostly remained covert. A sabotage attack here, a drone crossing a border there. But recently, it feels like things have escalated beyond the usual hybrid attacks. The headlines have also be...

When people talk about  the Iran war, we tend to focus on Iran itself: the nuclear program, the Hormuz Strait struggles, how any American strikes there was. However, the war is now slowly expanding to other places, and the most important consequences of the war are happening also somewhere else.  Across Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq, armed groups connected to Iran are fighting, reorganizing and adapting to a rapidly changing Middle East. These fronts are not simply side battles. They are part of a wider contest over who will shape the region after the current war ends. In this week’s blog post, let’s look at Iran’s network across the region and ask whether it can survive the war with America. Attribution: CyberPen / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0 IN LEBANON, HEZBOLLAH’S PROBLEM IS NO LONGER SIMPLY ISRAEL For a long time, Hezbollah has been an important part of Iran’s regional strategy. Its political and military influence in Lebanon gave Tehran a powerful partner right on Isra...

September 11, 2001, marked a defining moment in modern history, altering the course of global events. On that day, coordinated terrorist attacks shocked the United States and the world, killing nearly 3,000 innocent people and creating a profound sense of national unity in the immediate aftermath. The attacks reshaped global security strategies and foreign policies, with lasting effects on international relations and personal lives. Known simply as “9/11,” the tragedy claimed nearly 3,000 lives and set the stage for sweeping changes in how nations addressed security and terrorism. In this blog post, marking the 25th anniversary of this tragic event, we will explore the events leading up to September 11, 2001, the harrowing occurrences of that day, and the profound aftermath that transformed both the United States and the world. The 9/11 attack was devastating (Copyright) THE BACKGROUND OF THE ATTACKS Al-Qaeda, the terrorist organization responsible for the 9/11 attacks, traces part of ...

As we roll into September, temperatures are cooling, the rains are coming, and Ukraine is facing the prospect of another difficult winter. Russia's war of terror is still raging and becoming increasingly violent. In this week's blog, I want to look at what kind of winter Ukraine may face and the challenges ahead. Europe and NATO also need to be aware, as the hybrid threat continues to grow stronger. (Copyright: Wikipedia Commons, dsns.gov.ua ) BALLISTIC MISSILES AND DRONE STRIKES During the summer, Russia has made some limited territorial gains, but it has not achieved a major breakthrough on the battlefield. Ukraine has also struggled to make significant territorial gains. Much of the fighting has increasingly moved beyond the front line, with both sides relying heavily on long-range strikes. Ukraine has expanded its campaign of long-range drone strikes against targets inside Russia, including oil refineries, military depots and other parts of Russia's military and energy ...

August 24th is Ukraine's Independence Day. This is year marks 35 years since the Verkhovna Rada adopted the Act of Declaration of Independence. It has now been 4 years and 6 months since the war, or 1,642 days. The day feels somehow more important this year. 35 years since Ukraine escaped from the strangling yoke of the Russian rule. And now, they have to fight tooth and nail, land liberated inch by inch, peppered with the blood and sacrifice of hundred of thousands of brave Ukrainian defenders.  Today, I want to have a look at what independence means when the country is at war. And how much is it worth paying in blood and sacrifice of people.     IT STARTED IN 1991, BUT THAT WAS JUST THE BEGINNING August 24th, 1991, was the day Ukraine declared independence as the Soviet Union was collapsing. It was a historic moment for a nation whose language, culture, and identity had been suppressed for decades under Soviet rule. However, it was also the beginning of a difficult...

It's August. Normally, that means a quiet period in European politics. Most politicians are away on their long earned summer holidays. Political life usually slows down. But in recent years, there seems to be no real break from politics. There is also no shortage of strange events. This summer has been no different. Events are moving quickly, and it is becoming harder to predict what will happen next. We have seen repeated waves of Russian and Ukrainian strikes against each other. The war in Iran has also escalated rapidly. This came after a short period when it seemed that peace might finally be possible. It is becoming harder to keep track of everything happening around the world. One crisis quickly follows another. In this blog post, I want to analyse what is really going on. Are we being bamboozled by the great political powers? If so, how? And what are they trying to achieve? DISTRACTION WITH IRAN AND UKRAINE How can we be bamboozled if everything is in the news? Well, that is...

More than four years after Russia launched its full scale, brutal invasion of Ukraine, one question continues to dominate headlines and people’s minds: “When will peace come?” Even Putin has acknowledged in a recent meeting that peace will eventually come. However, nobody can predict when.  A ceasefire could come unexpectedly, negotiations could produce a breakthrough, or the conflict could continue for years. What makes the war particularly difficult to predict is that its outcome depends not only on what happens on the battlefield, but also on what happens inside Russia and on Ukraine’s ability to maintain or strengthen its position. Western support, military developments, Russia’s economic struggles, and even tensions within Putin’s inner circle are all closely connected and could influence how the war unfolds. In this blog post, we examine the factors that could determine if and when the conflict ends. Would a lasting peace or a temporary ceasefire be more realistic? What could...

There are growing rumours that Russia is preparing for another round of forced mobilisation. If it happens, it is likely to take place in the autumn, after the Kremlin's state elections. In the meantime, the government appears to be laying the groundwork by introducing new laws that further restrict citizens' freedom of movement and expand the state's ability to monitor and control the population. Taken together, these measures point towards a level of state oversight that rivals and in some respects may even exceed that of the Soviet era. In this blog post, I will examine how realistic another large scale mobilisation is, the challenges Russia would face in carrying it out, and the potential consequences such a move could have for the country. LESSONS FROM THE 2022 MOBILISATION Russia's partial mobilisation in September 2022 provides the clearest indication of what another large scale mobilisation could look like. The Kremlin announced that it would call up 300,000 res...