EDITOR'S CORNER: Is War Coming to NATO?

Over the past few weeks, announcements from countries across Europe have escalated regarding the possibility of a Russian attack on a NATO country. Some call it hysteria, while others say the threat is not being taken seriously enough. However, what is the real picture? As Ukraine continues to struggle for its existence, Europe has to grapple with an ever-growing threat.

In this blog post, we ask whether the threat is more real than ever — and whether war will finally arrive in NATO.

REAL THREAT OR A FEAR-MONGERING CAMPAIGN?

Since 24 February 2022, NATO countries have been sounding the alarm about Russia. Almost every high-ranking politician and military official has said the same thing: Putin is not content with winning in Ukraine; he could eventually pick a fight with NATO. So far, that fight has mostly remained covert. A sabotage attack here, a drone crossing a border there. But recently, it feels like things have escalated beyond the usual hybrid attacks.

The headlines have also been quite alarming: "Russia increasing hospital bed capacity by 20,000 on border with Baltic countries"; "Sweden/Finland/EU/England warning citizens to prepare for 72 hours or war." Even President Stubb of Finland has told the population that we should prepare for some kind of Russian sabotage attack. Where does all of this come from?

RUSSIA LOSING OR WINNING IN UKRAINE?

We have explored extensively in other posts the severe losses Russia has suffered in Ukraine. We are talking about thousands of men killed or wounded every week, while the Russian economy is under increasing pressure. With discussions of mobilisation after the elections, the mood in the country is not good. Even Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina has struggled to keep interest rates low enough to support an economy under significant pressure.

Does this mean that Russia is losing the war? No. Russia is at a stalemate. It is slowly inching forward, but for every centimetre of Ukrainian territory it gains, it pays a heavy price in Russian lives. For now, Putin appears prepared to pay this high price in blood. The question is: for how long can Russia sustain this?

There are discussions that Putin could terrorise Ukrainians this winter more than ever, in an attempt to force them to capitulate to his demands next year. I guess peace, even peace at a huge cost, starts to look good when you are frozen, hungry, thirsty and tired, and all your friends are dead.

This is not a scenario I would like to see Ukraine in.

Let me make it clear: Ukraine is still the victim here, but it is not losing the war badly. The country is also suffering hundreds of battlefield casualties every week. This is not as significant as Russia's losses, but it is still an incredibly difficult number of defenders losing their lives.

WHAT ABOUT EUROPE? WILL THERE BE A WAR WITH NATO?

We have covered this news several times in the past. Putin does not have the resources to pick a war with NATO... at the moment. In the near future, however, that might change. Many experts argue that Russia would look to end the war in Ukraine before moving further into Europe. This is a pragmatic outlook that makes sense. Putin cannot be so reckless as to risk fighting a major war on several fronts. But who knows?

For now, Europe is stuck in a loop of hybrid attacks that could potentially constitute grounds for invoking Article 5 — or could ultimately amount to nothing. The treaty has not been tested in circumstances this ambiguous, despite NATO member states experiencing incidents that have caused damage and, in some cases, deaths. This includes the occasional drones crossing or entering NATO airspace from the direction of Ukraine and Russia.

The bigger concern is not necessarily that Russia will suddenly launch a full-scale invasion of a NATO country tomorrow. The concern is what happens if these smaller incidents continue to increase in frequency and severity. A drone becomes a sabotage operation, a sabotage operation becomes an attack on infrastructure, and eventually NATO has to decide where the line has been crossed. The danger lies in miscalculation: Russia may believe NATO will not respond, while NATO may eventually feel that failing to respond would encourage further aggression. That is where a relatively small incident could potentially create a much larger crisis.

CONCLUSION

The threat of a direct Russian attack on NATO is difficult to measure, but it should not simply be dismissed as hysteria. At the same time, fear should not replace facts. Europe faces a real security challenge, but there is still a significant difference between hybrid attacks, military pressure and an outright war with NATO.

For now, the biggest question is not whether war is inevitable. It is whether Europe can deter further escalation without allowing fear, miscalculation or complacency to push the continent into one.