CLOAK AND CABINET

Before the conflict began, many expected the war with Iran to be short. President Trump and his supporters appeared to believe that Iran would be unable to sustain a prolonged fight. At the same time, anti-government protests had been taking place across the country, leading some to predict that internal unrest would quickly weaken the Iranian regime. The reality has been more complicated. Although Iran cannot match the United States in military technology or conventional firepower, it has demonstrated resilience, patience, and a willingness to absorb significant costs. Unlike many Western democracies, Iran's leadership also faces fewer domestic political constraints when it comes to sustaining a long conflict. In this blog post, I explore how the conflict has evolved over time, why many early predictions proved inaccurate, and what the consequences could be if the war continues for an extended period. THE WAR IN A NUTSHELL Let's take a step back and look at how the war has u...

The past few weeks has been one of the most politically dramatic periods in Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy carried out a sweeping government reshuffle, replacing the prime minister, Yulia Svyrydenko dismissing the defence minister, and making many other changes across the cabinet. The outgoing prime minister was offered a diplomatic post in Washington, which she has still not accepted formally. The dismissal of Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, in particular, sparked strong reactions among many Ukrainians, who viewed him as one of the key architects of the country's technological and military innovation, and sweeping changes for the better in the defence forces. Perhaps the most significant change, however, came within Ukraine's military leadership. Zelenskyy also replaced Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi with Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi.  In this post, we'll look at what happened, why thes...

The battlefield is changing faster than most military planners ever expected. In Ukraine, drones have become the most important weapon of the war. They dominate the air, the sea, and the land. Long range drones strike targets deep inside Russia, sometimes thousands of kilometres from the front lines. Ground drones evacuate wounded soldiers and deliver ammunition and supplies. At sea, Ukrainian drones have forced Russia's Black Sea Fleet to pull back and limit its operations. A country that does not have a navy has succeeded in beating the Russian navy!  This raises an important question. Should countries continue spending billions on tanks, fighter jets, and warships if cheap drones can destroy them in minutes? Have the world's most expensive weapons become obsolete? This week, we examine whether the era of traditional military hardware is coming to an end.   THE END OF THE AGE OF BIG PLATFORMS? For decades, military power has been measured by the number of tanks, fighter jets...

Belarus is often described as Europe's last dictatorship. Led by Aleksandr Lukashenko since 1994, the country has become one of Vladimir Putin's closest allies. As Russia's war against Ukraine continues, Belarus has repeatedly found itself at the centre of speculation over whether it could become directly involved in the conflict. In recent weeks, Ukraine has warned that it may strike military infrastructure inside Belarus if Minsk does not remove what it sees as a growing threat. In this blog post, we'll explore who Aleksandr Lukashenko is, how he rose to power, and whether Belarus is actually likely to enter the war in Ukraine. WHO IS ALEKSANDR LUKASHENKO? Aleksandr Lukashenko was born on 30 August 1954 in Kopys, a small village in the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic, the name of Belarus when it was part of the Soviet Union. He was raised by his mother in a single-parent household on a farm. Life was modest, as they lived in a small rural village. Lukashenko ne...

Since the war in Ukraine took an interesting turn from conventional warfare to drones, the question on everyone’s lips has been whether Europe should still keep investing in expensive military equipment such as tanks and jets. Cheap drones and missiles appear to be making a major difference in the war in Ukraine. So why spend so much money on traditional weapons when there is already a lack of funding in other areas? Education and health systems, after all, do not fund themselves. This week, let’s break down why conventional warfare is still very much relevant—and why Europe continues to need expensive military materiel alongside cheap drones. UKRAINE, A BIG AND FLAT NATION The war in Ukraine could initially be fought with tanks and large mechanized formations because Ukraine’s geography allows for it. It is a vast, relatively flat country with wide open fields and long land borders, which makes it suitable for maneuver warfare where tanks, artillery, and infantry can operate across la...

China is known for many things, including its rapid modernization, advanced technology sector, and its role as a global manufacturing and export powerhouse. In fact, much of the consumer goods we use every day are labelled “Made in China.” Politically, China is a one-party state led by the Chinese Communist Party, with Xi Jinping serving as its top leader since 2012. His leadership has been marked by a strong centralization of authority. At the same time, China has faced significant international scrutiny over human rights concerns, including widely reported allegations of abuses affecting its Uyghur Muslim population in the Xinjiang region. This week, I want to focus on the situation faced by these communities, whose daily lives are heavily shaped by government policies and restrictions that have drawn concern from human rights organizations around the world.   WHO ARE THE UYGHUR MUSLIMS? Certainly. For a blog post, it often works best to introduce the Uyghurs before discussing th...

As the European Union faces growing geopolitical challenges and renewed interest from countries seeking membership, policymakers have begun exploring alternative approaches to enlargement. One proposal gaining increasing attention is a two-tier membership model, often referred to as "staged accession" or a form of "lite membership." Rather than requiring candidate countries to complete the lengthy and demanding accession process before benefiting from European integration, this model would allow them to participate in selected EU policies, programs, and institutions while continuing to implement the reforms necessary for full membership. In this blog post, we will examine how this model works, why it has attracted support, and the potential advantages and drawbacks it could bring for both the EU and aspiring member states. THE HISTORY OF EUROPEAN UNION ENLARGEMENT The European Union traces its origins to the aftermath of the Second World War, when European leaders...