EDITOR'S CORNER: Chess Plays and Decoys
It's August. Normally, that means a quiet period in European politics. Most politicians are away on their long earned summer holidays. Political life usually slows down. But in recent years, there seems to be no real break from politics. There is also no shortage of strange events. This summer has been no different. Events are moving quickly, and it is becoming harder to predict what will happen next.
We have seen repeated waves of Russian and Ukrainian strikes against each other. The war in Iran has also escalated rapidly. This came after a short period when it seemed that peace might finally be possible. It is becoming harder to keep track of everything happening around the world. One crisis quickly follows another.
In this blog post, I want to analyse what is really going on. Are we being bamboozled by the great political powers? If so, how? And what are they trying to achieve?
How can we be bamboozled if everything is in the news? Well, that is kind of the point. There are now so many things in the news that we no longer keep track of what is actually happening.
Every day, we hear about Iran, and then about Ukraine. The strikes between Russia and Ukraine are becoming more significant and more frequent. Yet we barely register them anymore. Ukraine's decision to strike Wildberries warehouses was an inventive move. Russia has since retaliated with strikes on Ukraine that have killed civilians. This is nothing new, I know. But we do need to acknowledge that the peace process between Russia and Ukraine is now basically non existent. The war is not getting better or easier. In fact, we should expect it to escalate. Ukraine is already preparing for a very difficult winter. There is also speculation that Russia could target Ukraine's water supply, rather than focusing only on energy infrastructure.
The situation in Iran has followed a similar pattern. A few weeks ago, there were signs that the fighting might finally be slowing down. There was even an interim agreement and hopes that negotiations could lead to a wider peace deal. Those hopes have now largely disappeared. The agreement has collapsed, and talks between Iran and the United States have stalled. The situation around the Strait of Hormuz has also become increasingly serious. Iran has kept the strait closed and has threatened further military action if its demands are not met. The 60 day period for reaching a deal has now expired without an agreement.
Of course, the worrying effects of the Strait of Hormuz shutdown are becoming more serious. Oil prices are rising again, and people are feeling the impact at the pump. Many Americans are also becoming increasingly frustrated with Trump's actions. He promised that the United States would stay out of foreign wars. Yet the Iran conflict now looks like it could continue for some time. The longer it goes on, the harder it becomes to see how the United States can simply walk away without further consequences.
With all this going on in Iran and Ukraine, do people have energy to look somewhere else?
HIDING IN PLAIN SIGHT
This is now my point. We have something catastrophic happening almost every day. Besides the wars, Europe is facing more natural disasters due to climate change. Most Europeans this summer have either faced harsh heat or devastating fires. Sometimes, the unfortunate ones have faced both. These events are becoming so common that they barely feel unusual anymore. A heatwave that would have been shocking a few years ago can now pass through the news in a few days. The same goes for wildfires, floods and other extreme weather events.
This creates another problem. When everything feels like a crisis, it becomes difficult to understand what really matters. We move from one disaster to another without having time to process any of them. One day it is Iran. The next it is Ukraine. Then it is a wildfire somewhere in Europe. After that, there is another political crisis. The constant stream of bad news can make us feel informed while actually making it harder to see the bigger picture.
The things happening in the background are the ones we need to pay attention to. Smaller events can easily get lost in the constant stream of breaking news. Russia threatening Britain after a Ukrainian deep strike in Russia using a British supplied drone is one example. Another is Putin visiting the Kuril Islands, something he rarely does. There is also growing speculation that Russia could be mobilising. None of these events necessarily means that something bigger is about to happen. But together, they are worth watching.
SO WHAT IS GOING ON?
That is the point. We cannot really say. The chess pieces are moving in the background, but the game is covered. We can only see half of it. While we are focused on the latest headline, governments are making decisions that could shape what happens next. Military forces are moving. Alliances are being tested. Threats are being made. Some of these developments may turn out to mean very little. Others could become much more important. The difficult part is knowing which is which before it becomes obvious.
I suspect that Russia may be preparing for a bigger escalation with Europe, if that is something Putin actually wants to pursue. The speculation is there. The warning bells have been ringing. But we still do not know what a Russian escalation with Europe would look like. It may not begin with something obvious. We have already seen incidents that raise questions. At Leipzig Airport in Germany, an explosives laden drone was found near Ukrainian cargo aircraft. The drone did not explode, but German authorities are treating it as a possible hybrid attack. Investigators are still trying to establish who was behind it. If Russia was responsible, it would be a very different kind of escalation. It would show that the conflict is not only being fought in Ukraine, but also through covert operations inside Europe.
There is also another possibility. China could see an opportunity to make a move against Taiwan while the United States is distracted. Washington is already heavily focused on the Middle East. Its attention and resources are being pulled in several directions. That could create an opening for China. It does not mean that an attack on Taiwan is coming. But Beijing will certainly be watching how the United States responds to the current conflicts. The question is whether other powers will decide that this is the moment to test how far America is willing to go.
We are also seeing North Korea becoming more involved. Kim Jong Un has found a powerful friend and partner in Putin. North Korean weapons and troops have been used in the war in Ukraine. For Pyongyang, this is about much more than making money. It is a huge opportunity to test its weapons and give its soldiers real combat experience.
North Korea has plenty of weapons and soldiers. What it has lacked is experience of modern warfare. Its military also faces a significant technological gap compared with many other countries. Fighting alongside Russia gives North Korean soldiers the chance to learn how modern war is actually fought. They can gain experience with drones, electronic warfare and other technologies that are changing the battlefield.
All of these countries are connected in some way. North Korea, Russia, China and Iran have increasingly worked together and share a common interest in challenging the West. They are sometimes described as an informal axis of countries that have a bone to pick with the United States and its allies. Their interests are not always the same, but they have found ways to cooperate when it benefits them.
Western countries have their own moves to make. Europe and the United States continue to support Ukraine while trying to protect the democratic systems and institutions that have shaped the Western world. At the same time, the political landscape is changing. Right wing parties are gaining support across Europe and the wider West. Trump's America has its own interests and strategies. At times, these appear to go against America's traditional allies and even some of the values that the United States has historically claimed to represent. This makes the situation even harder to understand. The alliances still exist, but the interests within them are becoming less predictable.
CONCLUSION
I will end this blog post by saying that it is worth paying attention to the whole picture. You need to read all the headlines, not just the top headline or the most sensational ones. I have pointed out some examples of things that are somehow interconnected but look like completely separate events. They may not all be connected. We simply do not know. But that is exactly why they are worth watching.
The world is changing quickly, and the biggest developments may not always be the ones getting the most attention. Wars, political decisions, military movements and smaller incidents can all influence each other. We should not assume that every event is part of some bigger plan. At the same time, we should not ignore the patterns that are starting to appear.
The important thing is to stay curious, question what we are being told and try to look beyond the latest headline. Sometimes the most important story is the one happening quietly in the background.
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