CLOAK AND CABINET

More than four years after Russia launched its full scale, brutal invasion of Ukraine, one question continues to dominate headlines and people’s minds: “When will peace come?” Even Putin has acknowledged in a recent meeting that peace will eventually come. However, nobody can predict when.  A ceasefire could come unexpectedly, negotiations could produce a breakthrough, or the conflict could continue for years. What makes the war particularly difficult to predict is that its outcome depends not only on what happens on the battlefield, but also on what happens inside Russia and on Ukraine’s ability to maintain or strengthen its position. Western support, military developments, Russia’s economic struggles, and even tensions within Putin’s inner circle are all closely connected and could influence how the war unfolds. In this blog post, we examine the factors that could determine if and when the conflict ends. Would a lasting peace or a temporary ceasefire be more realistic? What could...

There are growing rumours that Russia is preparing for another round of forced mobilisation. If it happens, it is likely to take place in the autumn, after the Kremlin's state elections. In the meantime, the government appears to be laying the groundwork by introducing new laws that further restrict citizens' freedom of movement and expand the state's ability to monitor and control the population. Taken together, these measures point towards a level of state oversight that rivals and in some respects may even exceed that of the Soviet era. In this blog post, I will examine how realistic another large scale mobilisation is, the challenges Russia would face in carrying it out, and the potential consequences such a move could have for the country. LESSONS FROM THE 2022 MOBILISATION Russia's partial mobilisation in September 2022 provides the clearest indication of what another large scale mobilisation could look like. The Kremlin announced that it would call up 300,000 res...

Before the conflict began, many expected the war with Iran to be short. President Trump and his supporters appeared to believe that Iran would be unable to sustain a prolonged fight. At the same time, anti-government protests had been taking place across the country, leading some to predict that internal unrest would quickly weaken the Iranian regime. The reality has been more complicated. Although Iran cannot match the United States in military technology or conventional firepower, it has demonstrated resilience, patience, and a willingness to absorb significant costs. Unlike many Western democracies, Iran's leadership also faces fewer domestic political constraints when it comes to sustaining a long conflict. In this blog post, I explore how the conflict has evolved over time, why many early predictions proved inaccurate, and what the consequences could be if the war continues for an extended period. THE WAR IN A NUTSHELL Let's take a step back and look at how the war has u...

The past few weeks has been one of the most politically dramatic periods in Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy carried out a sweeping government reshuffle, replacing the prime minister, Yulia Svyrydenko dismissing the defence minister, and making many other changes across the cabinet. The outgoing prime minister was offered a diplomatic post in Washington, which she has still not accepted formally. The dismissal of Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, in particular, sparked strong reactions among many Ukrainians, who viewed him as one of the key architects of the country's technological and military innovation, and sweeping changes for the better in the defence forces. Perhaps the most significant change, however, came within Ukraine's military leadership. Zelenskyy also replaced Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi with Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi.  In this post, we'll look at what happened, why thes...

The battlefield is changing faster than most military planners ever expected. In Ukraine, drones have become the most important weapon of the war. They dominate the air, the sea, and the land. Long range drones strike targets deep inside Russia, sometimes thousands of kilometres from the front lines. Ground drones evacuate wounded soldiers and deliver ammunition and supplies. At sea, Ukrainian drones have forced Russia's Black Sea Fleet to pull back and limit its operations. A country that does not have a navy has succeeded in beating the Russian navy!  This raises an important question. Should countries continue spending billions on tanks, fighter jets, and warships if cheap drones can destroy them in minutes? Have the world's most expensive weapons become obsolete? This week, we examine whether the era of traditional military hardware is coming to an end.   THE END OF THE AGE OF BIG PLATFORMS? For decades, military power has been measured by the number of tanks, fighter jets...

Belarus is often described as Europe's last dictatorship. Led by Aleksandr Lukashenko since 1994, the country has become one of Vladimir Putin's closest allies. As Russia's war against Ukraine continues, Belarus has repeatedly found itself at the centre of speculation over whether it could become directly involved in the conflict. In recent weeks, Ukraine has warned that it may strike military infrastructure inside Belarus if Minsk does not remove what it sees as a growing threat. In this blog post, we'll explore who Aleksandr Lukashenko is, how he rose to power, and whether Belarus is actually likely to enter the war in Ukraine. WHO IS ALEKSANDR LUKASHENKO? Aleksandr Lukashenko was born on 30 August 1954 in Kopys, a small village in the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic, the name of Belarus when it was part of the Soviet Union. He was raised by his mother in a single-parent household on a farm. Life was modest, as they lived in a small rural village. Lukashenko ne...

Since the war in Ukraine took an interesting turn from conventional warfare to drones, the question on everyone’s lips has been whether Europe should still keep investing in expensive military equipment such as tanks and jets. Cheap drones and missiles appear to be making a major difference in the war in Ukraine. So why spend so much money on traditional weapons when there is already a lack of funding in other areas? Education and health systems, after all, do not fund themselves. This week, let’s break down why conventional warfare is still very much relevant—and why Europe continues to need expensive military materiel alongside cheap drones. UKRAINE, A BIG AND FLAT NATION The war in Ukraine could initially be fought with tanks and large mechanized formations because Ukraine’s geography allows for it. It is a vast, relatively flat country with wide open fields and long land borders, which makes it suitable for maneuver warfare where tanks, artillery, and infantry can operate across la...