CLOAK AND CABINET

August 24th is Ukraine's Independence Day. This is year marks 35 years since the Verkhovna Rada adopted the Act of Declaration of Independence. It has now been 4 years and 6 months since the war, or 1,642 days. The day feels somehow more important this year. 35 years since Ukraine escaped from the strangling yoke of the Russian rule. And now, they have to fight tooth and nail, land liberated inch by inch, peppered with the blood and sacrifice of hundred of thousands of brave Ukrainian defenders.  Today, I want to have a look at what independence means when the country is at war. And how much is it worth paying in blood and sacrifice of people.     IT STARTED IN 1991, BUT THAT WAS JUST THE BEGINNING August 24th, 1991, was the day Ukraine declared independence as the Soviet Union was collapsing. It was a historic moment for a nation whose language, culture, and identity had been suppressed for decades under Soviet rule. However, it was also the beginning of a difficult...

It's August. Normally, that means a quiet period in European politics. Most politicians are away on their long earned summer holidays. Political life usually slows down. But in recent years, there seems to be no real break from politics. There is also no shortage of strange events. This summer has been no different. Events are moving quickly, and it is becoming harder to predict what will happen next. We have seen repeated waves of Russian and Ukrainian strikes against each other. The war in Iran has also escalated rapidly. This came after a short period when it seemed that peace might finally be possible. It is becoming harder to keep track of everything happening around the world. One crisis quickly follows another. In this blog post, I want to analyse what is really going on. Are we being bamboozled by the great political powers? If so, how? And what are they trying to achieve? DISTRACTION WITH IRAN AND UKRAINE How can we be bamboozled if everything is in the news? Well, that is...

More than four years after Russia launched its full scale, brutal invasion of Ukraine, one question continues to dominate headlines and people’s minds: “When will peace come?” Even Putin has acknowledged in a recent meeting that peace will eventually come. However, nobody can predict when.  A ceasefire could come unexpectedly, negotiations could produce a breakthrough, or the conflict could continue for years. What makes the war particularly difficult to predict is that its outcome depends not only on what happens on the battlefield, but also on what happens inside Russia and on Ukraine’s ability to maintain or strengthen its position. Western support, military developments, Russia’s economic struggles, and even tensions within Putin’s inner circle are all closely connected and could influence how the war unfolds. In this blog post, we examine the factors that could determine if and when the conflict ends. Would a lasting peace or a temporary ceasefire be more realistic? What could...

There are growing rumours that Russia is preparing for another round of forced mobilisation. If it happens, it is likely to take place in the autumn, after the Kremlin's state elections. In the meantime, the government appears to be laying the groundwork by introducing new laws that further restrict citizens' freedom of movement and expand the state's ability to monitor and control the population. Taken together, these measures point towards a level of state oversight that rivals and in some respects may even exceed that of the Soviet era. In this blog post, I will examine how realistic another large scale mobilisation is, the challenges Russia would face in carrying it out, and the potential consequences such a move could have for the country. LESSONS FROM THE 2022 MOBILISATION Russia's partial mobilisation in September 2022 provides the clearest indication of what another large scale mobilisation could look like. The Kremlin announced that it would call up 300,000 res...

Before the conflict began, many expected the war with Iran to be short. President Trump and his supporters appeared to believe that Iran would be unable to sustain a prolonged fight. At the same time, anti-government protests had been taking place across the country, leading some to predict that internal unrest would quickly weaken the Iranian regime. The reality has been more complicated. Although Iran cannot match the United States in military technology or conventional firepower, it has demonstrated resilience, patience, and a willingness to absorb significant costs. Unlike many Western democracies, Iran's leadership also faces fewer domestic political constraints when it comes to sustaining a long conflict. In this blog post, I explore how the conflict has evolved over time, why many early predictions proved inaccurate, and what the consequences could be if the war continues for an extended period. THE WAR IN A NUTSHELL Let's take a step back and look at how the war has u...

The past few weeks has been one of the most politically dramatic periods in Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy carried out a sweeping government reshuffle, replacing the prime minister, Yulia Svyrydenko dismissing the defence minister, and making many other changes across the cabinet. The outgoing prime minister was offered a diplomatic post in Washington, which she has still not accepted formally. The dismissal of Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, in particular, sparked strong reactions among many Ukrainians, who viewed him as one of the key architects of the country's technological and military innovation, and sweeping changes for the better in the defence forces. Perhaps the most significant change, however, came within Ukraine's military leadership. Zelenskyy also replaced Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi with Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi.  In this post, we'll look at what happened, why thes...

The battlefield is changing faster than most military planners ever expected. In Ukraine, drones have become the most important weapon of the war. They dominate the air, the sea, and the land. Long range drones strike targets deep inside Russia, sometimes thousands of kilometres from the front lines. Ground drones evacuate wounded soldiers and deliver ammunition and supplies. At sea, Ukrainian drones have forced Russia's Black Sea Fleet to pull back and limit its operations. A country that does not have a navy has succeeded in beating the Russian navy!  This raises an important question. Should countries continue spending billions on tanks, fighter jets, and warships if cheap drones can destroy them in minutes? Have the world's most expensive weapons become obsolete? This week, we examine whether the era of traditional military hardware is coming to an end.   THE END OF THE AGE OF BIG PLATFORMS? For decades, military power has been measured by the number of tanks, fighter jets...